Looking for the best elk unit in Colorado for OTC archery? I’ve built a custom spreadsheet (yes, it took a while) to show you which units are at the top of the heap for your style of hunting.
First I’ll walk you some common mistakes, how I built the file, and what the data tells you (and more importantly, what it doesn’t). Then we’ll go step by step to pick the “best” unit for your elk hunt this fall. By the end of this article you should be able to narrow down your search to a few units to hunt elk in 2020.
Remember, there is no such thing as the best unit for everyone. Even if there was, everyone would be there and the pressure would be crazy. I actually spent several years working in data analytics, so trust me, if I could crunch the numbers and give you an answer, I would. The “best” unit is one that fits your hunting style, has plenty of elk, and doesn’t get a ton of pressure (or at least pressure where you’ll be hunting).
Success is about avoiding people, not following the masses
Before we dive in, remember that Colorado has plenty of elk. With well over 280,000 running around there are more than enough in each unit to have a good hunt. So why doesn’t everyone harvest one? The reality of over the counter (OTC) hunting is that instead of looking for elk, you need to work on avoiding other hunters. Turns out elk avoid hunters as well, so that’s where you’ll find them.
The most important factor for picking a unit is whether that unit has pressure where you are going to hunt. Everyone else is trying to avoid people as well: you just have to go one step further.
Things to know before we dive in
Like most western states, Colorado goes through a lot of effort to publish big game harvest statistics every year. That data governs how tag quotas are set but it also helps hunters figure out which units have the best hunting.
The data Colorado publishes is always about two years old, which means that most recent stats are currently from 2018. That’s normal… all the big sites like GoHunt, Hunting Fool, etc use the exact same info, so don’t worry about it. But do remember a lot could have happened since then: was it an abnormally good or bad year? Was there a fire? Did regulations change (remember, they did for Colorado in 2020!).
The raw Colorado data is over 66 pages and it’s really difficult to compare units since you don’t know which are OTC (don’t trust me? Take a look at it). Most people just look at the file, pick the highest success rate, and go. That’s not a good approach for a lot of reasons:
Success rate is overrated
Success rate is a bad metric to trust because it doesn’t tell you the most important thing: who are the hunters that killed elk and how are they hunting?
Imagine this: there are two units that both have a nice 12% success rate. One has mostly out of shape guys that hunt from their RV. The other is mostly wilderness area and is filled with hardcore backpackers that live less than an hour away. Even though 12% of guys in both units get an elk, it would be far easier for you to get away from the crowd and be successful in the first unit.
That’s actually what happens. Units that have tons of road access (read: not much backcountry) often have high success rates. You don’t really want to be there because success is more about luck and the sheer number of people driving roads. Also, some units that have low success rates actually have really good hunting… it’s just hard for the average person to get to it.
I still think success rate is a valuable metric (mainly to tell you where NOT to go), but there are better metrics than what Colorado provides.
Data I added
I downloaded all the archery data into a spreadsheet, identified if units are OTC, and then took out units that are east of I-80 (they’re flat and almost all private agricultural land).
Then I spent some time adding two important stats into the file: Public acres per hunter and days per harvest. To do that I had to find out how much public land is in each unit, so it definitely took a lot of time. Here’s an overview of each stat:
- Public land per hunter
- What it tells you: Roughly how crowded a unit is. The more public land per hunter, the more space you should have to get away from the crowd.
- What doesn’t tell you: If all that public land holds elk. It might look like unit 3 or 60 are amazing, but in reality most if it is desert land.
- Days per harvest
- What it tells you: How many hunting days did it take for the average hunter to kill an elk. It’s better than success rate because it factors in the effort required.
- What it doesn’t tell you: How much effort hunters put in outside of season. Some units near cities might get a lot of hunters that live nearby and spend less time hunting because they know when/where to go.
Then I used a heat map to show which units have the best stats and which have the worst (that’s just fancy term for adding “stoplight” colors to the data so you can visualize it… green is best, yellow is ok, red is worst).
Phew, alright, that’s a lot about the data. Jump to the next section so you can put it to work.
How to pick the best elk unit in Colorado (for you)
Now for the fun stuff: picking a unit. Here’s a step by step guide using the spreadsheet I built to help you narrow it down.
Step 1: Pick a state
I’m assuming you already did this in Part 1 of the series (Colorado vs Idaho for OTC Elk), so go back and give it a read if you’re still unsure.
While this article is about Colorado, I also am doing an analysis on the picking the “best” elk unit in Idaho, so head over there if you’re in the wrong spot.
Step 2: Find the units that are closest to you
You have to start somewhere. Just like picking a state, one of the biggest criteria for picking a unit is how close it is to you. Driving clear across the state to a unit that has slightly better stats is far worse than spending a few extra hours in a unit that’s closer. Take a look at the picture below or open up a copy of the 2020 Colorado Big Game Book, open up Google Maps, and figure out which 5-10 units are closest to where you’re coming from.
Remember: you can’t really hunt all those units east of I-80 (or Denver/Colorado Springs). Why? 95%+ of the land is flat, private, and agricultural, so the elk will always be where you can’t go.
Step 3: Crunch the numbers
Here we go. To get access to the file you’ll need to subscribe at the bottom of this page and so I can automatically send you an email with the link. Otherwise, I’ll post some photos here that should help (although they definitely won’t cover every unit).
Take that list of 5-10 units and check them against the 3 stats highlighted below:
- Public acres per hunter: Green is best, yellow is fine
- Days per harvest: Green is best, yellow is fine
- Success rate: Just make sure it’s NOT in the orange/red (below 7%)
Don’t worry if the “best” units in your group still have some stats in the yellow (or all of them in the yellow)! Like we discussed above, that doesn’t necessarily mean it’s bad: I killed an elk my first two years in a unit that has mostly yellow stats.
Step 4: Evaluate other sources of pressure
Like we talked about, the numbers don’t tell you everything. There are other important sources of pressure that you should look into:
- Other hunting seasons (rifle, muzzleloader, etc): How many other seasons and tags are in that unit during the rest of the year? Are they before, during, or after your season? Take a look at the Colorado big game book.
- Proximity to cities, other states, etc: The easier it is to get to a unit from where people live, the more people are going to hunt there. That simple.
- How much non-hunting pressure is there? Colorado is an active state. Are there popular trails with runners, bikers, motorcyclists, etc? A good way to tell is to look at trailheads on google maps, check out sites like AllTrails.com, or make some phone calls.
We’ll get into more specific sources of pressure when we talk about picking spots later in the series, but for now those are good ones to cover.
Step 5: Look at the terrain and access
Now that you’ve narrowed down the list, the final step is to figure out which of those units has the type of terrain and access that you want to hunt. (Not sure if you’re going to backpack or hunt from a car/RV yet? We’ll cover that next week). For Colorado, you’ll want to fire up the following webpages:
- Google Maps to see the terrain (we’ll cover Google Earth later)
- Make sure to hit the “ 3D” option and remember everything looks way, way easier than it is
- Colorado Hunting Atlas (free from state of CO)
- Make sure to check the “Motor vehicle use map” option since roads are what you should care about most
- Trust this above all other sources on what backroads are actually open to traffic
Using those sites it’s pretty easy to tell how many roads criss-cross a unit and just how challenging the terrain is. If you’re backpacking, you’re looking for blank areas at least 2-5 miles from a road. If you’re road hunting, a unit that has a lot of access isn’t necessarily bad if there are pockets for the elk.
An important note: wilderness areas aren’t a golden ticket. Almost every nonresident that comes to CO that backpacks wants to go to one of these (no vehicles! backcountry! wilderness!) so ironically you’ll end up with more crowds. Elk have no clue if something is called a wilderness area. Blank holes in the map in national forests often have far less pressure and therefore more elk.
Summary
If you use the process above you’ll end up with a far better area than most hunters. You should now have a unit or a few units that you want to hunt. Don’t worry if you haven’t found “the one” yet: it’s actually a good thing to have multiple spots. We’ll cover how to pick individual spots and hunting styles in the next few weeks.
Remember, picking a state or a unit isn’t what will make you successful. You should make a decision here and move on because what really will set you apart is where you go within the unit, the knowledge you have, and how hard you train. We’ll walk through all those in the future parts of the Hunt Elk in 2020 series.
If you want to access the spreadsheet and/or make sure to use subscribe form below. You’ll get an email within minutes with the links to files for Idaho and Colorado.